Still frighteningly close to the Rat Poll :-)
THE ELECTION MODEL
Created by TruthIsAll
Last update: Nov.1, 2004 7:00 pm
Final Projection
Kerry 337 EV / 51.80%
Bush 201 EV / 48.20%
The model projects Kerry the winner in 27 states:
AR, CA, CO, CT, DE
DC, FL, HI, IL, IA,
ME, MD, MA, MI, MN,
MO, NH, NJ, NM, NY,
OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI
Election Model Projections
If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.8% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 337-201 margin and 51.80% of the popular vote. Kerry won 4990 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulated election trials.
Based on the average of eighteen national polls, the National Vote Projection model calculates that Kerry has a 99.99% probability of winning a popular vote majority with 51.63% of the vote.
For the final projection, the base case undecided/other allocation assumption to Kerry has been changed from 60% to 75%. This is consistent with the opinion of professional political pollsters. To gauge the sensitivity of the expected electoral vote and win probability to the allocation, the model calculated five scenarios: 60%, 67%, 75%, 80% and 87%.
Bush Job Approval: 48.50% (11 Poll average)
The Gospel according to the Polling Gurus:
1- If an incumbent is polling below 50%, he's in trouble.
Bush is barely averaging 47%.
2- If an incumbent's approval rating is below 50%, he's in trouble.
Bush is at 48.50%.
3- If an incumbent has less than a 3%-4% lead in the final polls, he’s in trouble.
Bush is tied with Kerry.
4- Undecided voters break for the challenger.
Poll Updates:
Zogby: Kerry 47 Bush 48 (Kerry -1)
TIPP: Kerry 44 Bush 45 (Kerry +4)
Rasmussen: Kerry 47.4 Bush 48.8 (Kerry -.4)
FOX: Kerry 48 Bush 45 (Kerry +1)
WaPo: Kerry 48 Bush 48 (Kerry -1)
Florida and Ohio scenarios:
If Kerry
1) wins FL and loses OH, he has a 99.3% win probability with 307 EV.
2) loses FL and wins OH, he has a 98% win probability with 300 EV.
3) loses FL and loses OH, he has a 75% win probability with 280 EV.
4) wins FL and wins OH, he has a 99.8% win probability with 327EV.
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