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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (21217)11/2/2004 2:16:01 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Tue Nov 02 2004 13:40
trotsky (Mooney@crude) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
congrats on the timely spotting of the correction in crude - but i think it's just testing the previous break-out over $49-$50...for reasons previously discussed ( i.e. the slight net speculative short position which is mostly accounted for by small traders ) .
that said, the medium term fundamentals are bound to deteriorate the more of the temporarily lost Gulf production comes back online. i also note a complete lack of cold winter weather thus far - in contrast to various forecasts that were made in recent months.
but the market remains tight for other, more important reasons, namely strong demand growth coinciding with more and more depletion in major producing regions - that should keep the long term bull market intact, regardless of short to medium term gyrations, at least until the world relapses into synchronized recession.
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