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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who wrote (82827)11/2/2004 3:28:37 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) of 793845
 
REDSTATE - Calm Down By: Erick · Section: Election 2004

The early exit polls show Kerry leading in FLOHPA. Calm down folks.
Read this:

The mid-day numbers do not reflect weighting by actual turnout – the end-of-day exit poll used to assist the networks in determining winners will be weighted by the actual turnout of voters at each selected precinct. The weighting will then be continuously updated to reflect turnout at comparable precincts. In the past, mid-day numbers have reflected a weighting based on past turnout, so the leaked mid-day numbers may tell us nothing about the impact of new registrants or the unique level of turnout this time.
One point needs emphasis here: even in past elections, networks never called an election based on raw exit poll numbers alone. They were first weighted by a tally of the full day's turnout at each sampled precinct. This end-of-day data is (obviously) not available at 12 noon.

Resume GOTV activities. I'm hearing that the Bush team is quite confident.
Update [2004-11-2 14:53:34 by Erick]: I have been burning phone lines with GOP operatives. All are adamant -- including the dour pessimists -- that the Ohio and Florida numbers are wrong. They say Bush is ahead and it is very close in Pennsylvania.
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