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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: carranza2 who wrote (82833)11/2/2004 3:53:27 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 793872
 
Jay Cost has some sensible advice on the exit poll data: ignore it:

Ignore the exit polls...
The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo.

I know you are all desperate for information, but this is not what you are looking for. Please no posting of exit polling data on this site.

Personal observation: The numbers I have seen are extremely implausible in at least five out of fourteen different polls -- that casts a heavy fog over all of them. The rest of them are so close to one another that nobody really knows whether or not who even won the AM vote. Seriously.

Personal anecdote: The early exit polling in 2000 did not favor Bush at all. I remember coming home from class in 2000 and discovering that Bush was "toast" in the big states...and that he was putting together a "small state strategy" for victory. Well...we all know how that one worked out.
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