Released: November 02, 2004
Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election 

 Electoral Votes:
 
Bush
 213
 
Kerry
 311
 
Too Close To Call
 Nevada (5)
 
Too Close To Call
 Colorado (9)
 

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Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2

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Here's how we got there...

2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures: George Bush (Electoral Vote)  UT 5 KS 6 
WY 3 MS 6 
ID 4 SC 8 
AK 3 IN 11 
NE 5 KY 8 
ND 3 AL 9 
MT 3 GA 15 
SD 3 LA 9 
OK 7 TX  34 
 John Kerry (Electoral Vote) ME 4 MD 10 
VT 3 CT 7 
IL 21 HI 4 
RI 4 NY 31 
DE 3 MA 12 
NJ 15 DC 3 
CA 55 
 
 
 
Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142 Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172 

2004 Battleground States: 

 2000
 2004
Our Call
 Bush Electoral Votes
 Kerry Electoral Votes
 

 %Margin
 %Margin
 
 
 
Arizona (10)*
 Bush + 6.28%
 Bush 6%
 10
 -
 
Arkansas (6)*
 Bush + 5.44%
 Bush 3%
 6
 -
 
Colorado (9)
 Bush + 8.36%
 Too Close To Call
 -
 -
 
Florida (27)
 Bush + 0.01%
 Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry
 -
 27
 
Iowa (7)
 Gore + 0.31%
 Kerry 5%
 -
 7
 
Michigan (17)
 Gore + 5.13%
 Kerry 6%
 -
 17
 
Minnesota (10)
 Gore + 2.4%
 Kerry 6%
 -
 10
 
Missouri (11)*
 Bush + 3.34%
 Bush 3%
 11
 -
 
Nevada (5)
 Bush + 3.55%
 Too Close To Call
 -
 -
 
New Hampshire (4) * 
 Bush + 1.27%
 Kerry 5%
 -
 4
 
New Mexico (5)
 Gore + 0.06%
 Kerry 3%
 -
 5
 
North Carolina (15)*
 Bush + 12.83%
 Bush 3%
 15
 -
 
Oregon (7)*
 Gore + 0.44%
 Kerry 10%
 -
 7
 
Ohio (20)
 Bush + 3.51%
 Bush 2%
Trending Kerry
 -
 20
 
Pennsylvania (21)
 Gore + 4.17%
 Trending Kerry
 -
 21
 
Tennessee (11)*
 Bush + 3.86%
 Bush 4%
 11
 -
 
Virginia (13)* Bush + 7.00% Bush 13 - 
Washington (11)*
 Gore + 5.58%
 Kerry 11%
 -
 11
 
West Virginia (5)*
 Bush + 6.32%
 Bush 4%
 5
 -
 
Wisconsin (10)
 Gore + 0.22%
 Kerry 6%
 -
 10
 
Battleground State Totals 71 139 
Current Grand Total: 213 311 

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.

(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

(11/1/2004)

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