KERRY IS UNDERPERFORMING GORE [11/02 11:27 PM]
Want an interesting indicator? John Kerry is doing worse than Al Gore did in a lot of places.
In Delaware, Gore beat Bush 55 to 42 — a 13 point margin. This year, Kerry is winning 53 to 46 with 92 percent of the precincts in, a 7 point margin.
In New Jersey, Gore beat Bush 56 to 41 — a 15 point margin. This year, with 93 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry is leading 53 to 46 percent, a 7 point margin.
In Connecticut, Gore beat Bush 56 to 39 — a 17 point margin. This year, with 61 percent of the precincts reporting (okay, it's a little early), Kerry is leading 53 to 45 percent, an 8 point margin.
Thought one: This sort of thing is going to make a difference in the popular vote.
Thought two: How likely is it that Kerry going to overperform Gore in the swing states, but do worse in these blue states?
BUSH EXCEEDING PERFORMANCE IN CERTAIN OHIO COUNTIES [11/02 11:18 PM]
Jim Irvine, head of Ohioans for Concealed Carry has been working with the Bush campaign. He points out that Bush is exceeding how he performed in Cuyohoga County in 2000, and reports from the state's outlying counties are that Bush exceeded his 2000 performance there.
Winning Ohio is starting to look difficult for John Kerry.
UPDATE: I am told that MSNBC is reporting that the Cleveland vote is not looking strong enough for Kerry - the black turnout not high enough and too pro-Bush because of gay marriage issue.
Kerry Spot reader Andy observes, "Old rule was we had to lose Cuyahoga by no more than 100,000. Voinovich's blowout helped Bush there."
CHECKING IN ON NEW JERSEY [11/02 10:39 PM]
Remember New Jersey? That state that got called for Kerry at exactly 8:00 p.m. EST?
With 83 percent of precincts reporting, Kerry leads 52 percent to 47 percent. A solid win, but Bush is running 11 points better than he did in 2000.
UPDATE: I don't think Bush will win New Jersey (although I'm curious as to how close it will get). But Kerry Spot reader Chris suggests the numbers may tighten:
With 82% of precincts reporting, CNN shows no results returned for South Jersey Bush strongholds like Burlington County - and without those votes Bush is only 5 points behind Kerry. Looks like NJ could be a squeaker for Kerry.
Burlington County is the largest county in NJ and has been growing more populous. Absolutely no results have been returned from this county. We are solidly Republican and have kept Chris Smith in office, and he is rated one of the most conservative congressme in the nation.
Another glimmer of hope, NJ has several Military installations for such a small state - Ft. Monmouth, McGuire AFB, Fort Dix Reserve and at least three more.
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