For No 10, disappointment over prospect of four more years
PM to visit US soon to keep up pressure on foreign policy
guardian.co.uk
Patrick Wintour
Thursday November 4, 2004
The Guardian
Downing Street's studied mask of neutrality towards the US
presidency slipped in the early hours yesterday when
Democratic officials kept their Labour opposite numbers, such
as Lord Gould, abreast of exit polls that suggested John Kerry
was victorious. For just a few short hours the relief in No 10 was
palpable.
One official in Labour's election team said it would be the most
exhilarating day for Labour since Tony Blair's own election in
1997. Another said the party had much to learn from the
Democrats' techniques in getting out the vote. A former minister
predicted that the demise of George Bush would clear the
poisonous air inside Labour. Mr Blair would no longer have to
"pay the price of loyalty".
By yesterday morning such calculations had to be swiftly,
almost guiltily, suppressed. Mr Blair was abruptly recast as the
centre-left politician who will have to translate the wildly
unpopular neo-conservative philosophy of a second Bush
administration not just to Labour, but to Europe.
At prime minister's questions the hostility to Mr Bush on the
Labour backbenches was evident. The former foreign secretary
Robin Cook expressed scepticism that Mr Bush would change
his ways in the freedom of a second term.
"I'm not sure in the light of the last four years whether the Bush
team have got the skills to heal a divided America," he said.
"Not only do we have a divided America but also we have a
president who is highly polarising in his approach to world
politics."
But No 10 believes it has the political leverage to persuade Mr
Bush to make progress on a shared agenda that includes
progress on a Palestinian state, building democracy in
Afghanistan, and securing democratic elections in Iraq.
Mr Blair will fly to Washington shortly to talk such a programme
through.
Alastair Campbell, Mr Blair's former head of communications,
admitted that the prime minister had suffered politically for his
cooperation with the president. But he insisted Mr Blair was "in
a stronger position than other world leaders to go to George
Bush and say, 'Look, I have worked with you very closely in
Afghanistan and Iraq, but equally, if we are really going to make
an impact on the causes of terrorism as well as terrorism itself,
we have got to make progress on the Middle East peace
process.'"
Mr Blair has held lengthy video conferences with Mr Bush in the
past few weeks on the Middle East. A born optimist, he is
convinced that the president will use his political capital to
secure a Palestinian state. Many inside the Labour party remain
sceptical.
Mr Blair's other grand international projects for his third term
also depend on Mr Bush embracing bipartisan politics. The
prime minister is desperate to use his presidency of the G8 in
the first half of next year to promote a deal for Africa which is to
be unveiled by his Commission for Africa in March. He badly
needs US dollars to make this programme work.
He is also eager to make progress on climate change, even
though the Americans, Democratic and Republican, will not sign
the Kyoto treaty.
Finally, Mr Blair may also need Mr Bush's help to encourage the
EU to go further on military investment, as well as to discourage
the development of a core EU, and a periphery including Britain,
Nordic states and the former communist bloc.
After seeing his own second term largely knocked sideways by
the tone of the Republican-led "war on terror", Mr Blair will now
find out whether it has all been worthwhile.
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