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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (14877)11/4/2004 6:44:41 PM
From: SeaViewer  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
The same thing is happening in China. Saving rate decreased from 21% in January to 15% in August. Chinese saving rate is high, since there are hardly any social programs. People have to save for the retirement.

In January official inflation rate was 3.2%, 1-year term saving was 1.98% Real interest rate was -1.2%. And now offical inflation rate is 5.2%, 1-year term saving is 2.25%. Real interest rate is -3%. The actural inflation rate probably is much higher. People are putting their money into inflated real estate market. I expect saving rate continuing going down. That could cause some trouble for the retail banks.
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