Elections are always multi- variable, which is why the initial pool of undecideds is often about as large as the two bases. In 2000, for example, Bush arguably lost the popular vote because of the DUI story, which came too late to neutralize. But there was also the premature Florida call, which hurt the panhandle turnout, and enough fraud allegations that, if they had all been litigated, might have changed the final figures. (Remember, the popular margin was only about half a million).
This one of the problems with the thumbsucking over the "red and blue" states: there are some obvious truths that can account for differences without a great deal of ideological meaning. For example, most people who are married with children vote for the Republican candidate for president. But there are more of those in the suburbs than in the cities. Most people with incomes over $50k vote Republican; under $50k vote Democrat: there is a higher concentration of lower income voters in the slums than in the suburbs. It is revealing that when Guiliani first ran for mayor, the only borough that gave him a victory was Staten Island: but others were close enough for him to win. During his re-election campaign, finally he had broad support throughout the city. Outside of NYC, most of New York is fairly Republican, as one can see from Pataki. |
