Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: zonder who wrote (14910)	11/5/2004 10:14:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) of 116555

My Global Economic Take FWIW (perhaps nothing) IMO the economic reports coming in from various countries shows a world that is getting more out of balance not less. Prices falling in the UK. UK GDP slowed to 1.2% annual over the last 2 quarters. UK housing headed down. Consumer spending in Japan showing -1% annual growth. Japan threatened again just yesterday to intervene in the currency markets, bitching big time about the YEN not reflecting "fundamentals". Consumer spending down or stagant in most of Europe. EU Growth stagnant. Germany unemployment inching higher. China is attempting to slowdown in its economy and is warning against more investment there. Meanwhile the cheerleaders in the US root for more consumer spending, more debt, and no one pays any attention to the quality of the jobs we are creating. The US/China paradigm is more misaligned than ever and even China is acting to curb growth. How long we can stay this unbalanced is anyone's guess but even with a falling US$ are US exports going to rise much with this kind of imbalance? If this is the start of more job growth in the US, other than more people working at Walmart because more benefits expired and they were forced to take something, then perhaps we can stagger along with these imbalances for quite a bit longer. Summary: With no pent up demand in the US or the UK and no demand at all in Japan, with housing, GDP, and inflation all falling in the UK, no real recovery in sight in Europe, and China wanting to slow investment there, global economic news suggests to me a model that is more seriously out of wack than ever before. When we have to pay for this is anyone's guess. In the meantime party on. Mish

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