Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Frederick Smart who wrote (16745)	8/28/1997 5:03:00 PM
From: Don Earl	of 42771

Hi Frederick, It's more than rumors moving the price at this point. In my opinion anything short of a hostile take over is out of the question. That would be a long and bloody battle and would hurt Novell in the long run as it would divert their focus from taking care of the business of putting the company into shape again. Novell had a channel reduction move in Q2 96 at that time the company estimated that channel inventory was reduced by $255 million as a result. Q2 97 states that $144 million was shipped to the channel durring that quarter. Q3 97 states that the company allowed an extra $28 million to be returned. Border Manager began shipping this quarter. Schmidt stated that current expenses are going to be $250 million per quarter. So I'm guessing $90 million + $144 million + $28 million = $262 million + Border Manager $70 million? = $332 million - $250 million = $82 million or .23 EPS for Q4. A trading range of $10 to $13 should be reasonable. Anyone feel free to jump in. This is pure speculation on my part and I tend to be optimistic. Regards, Don

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