Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
Statement of
Kathleen P. Utgoff
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, November 5, 2004
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 337,000 in October,
and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent. The large increase in payroll employment followed gains of 139,000 in September and 198,000 in August (as revised). In October, there was a substantial job gain in construction as well as increases in several service- providing industries. Since the most recent low in August 2003, payroll employment has risen by 2.2 million.
Employment in construction rose by 71,000 in October.
Some of this unusually large gain reflected rebuilding and cleanup activity in the Southeast following the four hur- ricanes that struck the U.S. in August and September. In the 12 months prior to October, construction employment increased by 16,000 per month on average. About three- fourths of October's gain occurred among specialty trade contractors (54,000). Building construction also added jobs over the month.
[Lets call it 50,000 hurricane cleanup jobs - mish]
Elsewhere in the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment was little changed in October. Factory employment has held fairly steady over the past 5 months, following some improvement earlier this year. The factory workweek and over- time hours each edged down by 0.1 hour over the month.
[Factory workweek slightly lower - mish
where is the factory Number? "changed little" why not report the drop of 5,000? would you have reported a gain of 5,000?]
Within the service-providing sector, employment in professional and business services increased by 97,000 in October. About half of the gain was in temporary help services (48,000). Since its recent low point in April 2003, temporary help services has added 397,000 jobs. Employment in architectural and engineering services also increased over the month and has risen by 62,000 since June 2003.
[temporary jobs 48,000 employees reluctant to hire and/or putting the burden of benefits on temporary help - mish]
Health care and social assistance added 41,000 jobs in October, following a relatively small increase in September (10,000). Over the month, there were employment gains in doctors' offices, hospitals, and in social assistance. Over the year, health care and social assistance added nearly 300,000 jobs, with gains in nearly all of its component industries.
[no quibbles with the health care numbers it will probably keep rising in a choppy fashion. mish]
Financial services added 17,000 jobs in October,
with the gain essentially split between securities and commodities brokerages and the credit intermediation industry (which includes mortgage brokers and commercial banks). Employment in private education and in the education component of local government increased in October.
[OK - we added 17,000 financial jobs. 1/2 are brokers and 1/2 are in credit intermediation. The latter is quite a bad sign and I do not know what to make of the former other than speculation is up - mish]
Average hourly earnings for private production or nonsupervisory workers rose by 5 cents over the month, following a 2-cent increase in September. Over the year, average hourly earnings grew by 2.6 percent.
[I do not know what to make of average hourly earnings y-o-y of +2.6%. Does it factor in lost jobs? Does it factor in reduced benefits? - mish]
Turning to our measures from the household survey, the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged in October at 5.5 percent. The jobless rate has been at or near its current level thus far in 2004. The civilian labor force increased to 147.9 million in October; the labor force participation rate remained at 65.9 percent.
Employment as measured by the household survey edged up over the month. The employment-to-population ratio held in October at 62.3 percent. This ratio has stayed within a range of 62.1 to 62.5 since late 2002.
[I discount the household survey. People selling stuff on EBAY and other crap is not indicative of anything that makes any sense to me - mish]
In summary, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 337,000 in October and has risen by 2.2 million since August 2003. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged over the month, at 5.5 percent.
[I note that the unemployment rate was "essentially unchanged at 5.5%. It was 5.4% you can bet your ass that had it gone down to 5.3% it would have been noted not commensted on it be "essentially unchanged". At any rte it is a total BS number IMO as the participation rate has generally been dropping in spite of rising population. This number is totally bogus - mish]
OK lets break out the commenst and see what we have got
[Lets call it 50,000 hurricane cleanup jobs - mish]
[no quibbles with the +41,000 health care numbers it will probably keep rising in a choppy fashion. mish]
[OK - we added 17,000 financial jobs. 1/2 are brokers and 1/2 are in credit intermediation. The latter is quite a bad sign and I do not know what to make of the former other than speculation is up - mish]
[temporary jobs 48,000. employees reluctant to hire and/or putting the burden of benefits on temporary help - mish]
[I do not know what to make of average hourly earnings y-o-y of +2.6%. Does it factor in lost jobs? Does it factor in reduced benefits? - mish]
[I discount the household survey. People selling stuff on EBAY and other crap is not indicative of anything that makes any sense to me - mish]
[I note that the unemployment rate was "essentially unchanged at 5.5%. It was 5.4% you can bet your ass that had it gone down to 5.3% it would have been noted not commensted on it be "essentially unchanged". At any rte it is a total BS number IMO as the participation rate has generally been dropping in spite of rising population. This number is totally bogus - mish]
Certainly this is not as wonderful at it seems at first glance.
We have 50,000 hurricane jobs.
We have 8,500 credit memediation jobs
We have 48,000 temporary jobs.
We lost 5,000 manufacturing jobs.
we have 50,000 of those jobs added by the birth/death model.
This was a fair jobs report but not a great jobs report.
Mish |
