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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: GraceZ who wrote (15016)11/7/2004 11:26:41 AM
From: FiveFour  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
"most of the businesses that were started during the boom that were going to fail have already failed or are about to fail."

I would think that is typical in the early stages of a recovery and part of the reason that spreads have narrowed in junk debt in anticipation of lower default risk.

The underlying question is whether the US is really in a sustainable recovery or whether recessionary /deflationary pressures will overwhelm. Personally, I see an increasing risk of the latter, leading to further business failures and increased spreads on junk debt.
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