INTEL- Money Making Option Ideas for Small Investors Message Board

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Technology Stocks : INTEL- Money Making Option Ideas for Small Investors

INTC 41.50

+5.0%

Oct 28 3:59 PM EDT

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (185)	8/28/1997 6:49:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 201

Subject: "IDEA OF THE DAY"-Trading in&out for profits. \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| Show Navigation To: +J.T. (8442 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Aug 28 1997 1:49PM EST Reply #8446 of 8506 JT-- Markets facing a week of uncertainity- preparing you for eventualities. Dynamics of markets! Markets broke because of $ weakness- $ is testing its perfect triple bottom against the DEM 1,79.30 area- I think the upward momentum of SOXx is broken the chart has taken out albeit temporarily my support at 375 it is going to make a quick test of 367 next week- we are entering a week of extreme volatility. The sell out is healthy for markets- I am not changing my view I remain a bull and I think I can claim that higher cash levels will lead you to better opportunities. I am also of the opinion that this market has a bottom at 865 or around there that is my third level of support and for all intent and purposes that I expect to hold- Only a catatrophic event can take levels below that out- below this levels market becomes extremely cheap. I am asking for higher cash levels and I am reluctant in recommending new cash to work- the breaks technical and ALTR news associated with a falling $ is not something to write home about- My bias and tilt is to test of supports within 15 days, 893 870 860 area visited in conjunction with SOXx 367 357 and 350-45, the market will remain choppy and only earnings will soothe this market or a final confirmation that NAPM is strong but non-inflationary- this will not be possible without a sell out and test of lows, because two seperate set of reports will confirm this spanning over three days. The picture is changing and changing fast- The' Deaf ear syndrome' that is stock and bonds turning deaf ear to good news has been raised by JT many a times on this thread I am seeing increased frequency of this it is a charateristic of a reversal of market. What the future holds- Next week 1- We have docile numbers- market rallies for a day or two but pauses to think what's happening docile numbers in a non-inflationary environment are terrible. Market sells off due to fears of slow down in corporate profits. Bonds will rally. So long bond is a good play here in this situation. Bonds and markets will probably break that lock which feeds on each other as flight of capital settles in. Bonds first level of resistance is 114,14 on the way up if it takes that out we move to 115,05 area but here market ' inbuilt forward looking mechanism' smells the lower ' long yields' and snaps back up anticipating a fall out from these higher yields into corporate bottom line. 2- We have strong numbers NAPM comes 59-60 a clear indication that economic activity is strong(my preference) bonds sell off but markets also- here this would take bonds below 111,10 but market will test 880-85 level . The cash looks for safe haven- now two scenerios are possible: Unlikely- we see a crash of $ as assets are indiscrimantely sold. Likely- the cash is parked in 2-5 years treasuries, causing the front end be traded against the long end. 3- After NAPM numbers we will see a lot of back and forth until we get Unemployment report- if unemployment goes upto 5.0 from 4.8 and hourly cost is indicative of non-inflationary nature of wage pressures we get a 250-300 points rally. Even lower unemployment at 4.7 will cause an initial selloff but market will recover if hourly cost remains low. I can go on building various scenerios including bullish ones- but we all have long portfolios - I think my job is to explain you the delicate relationships of a bear reversal albeit a short one if we face one we all will know how the dynamics of various forces are going to work. The best way to prepare for this reversal is some' new cash allocation at a right time'. Earlest signs of market reversal from this 'quagmire'- The first sign of this reversal will be that the low and hi channel of DJIA which shows a sharp reversal down with daily routine of higher lows and lower hi's should show for atleast three days of a modest recovery with lower lows and higher hi's- I was comparing the' neck and body of this channel' of two corrections April and now we are under going- in scope of time and construction of channel, this correction is higher frequency of severity and has seemingly extended the 'correction time table' - most of these characteristics heighten the scope of uncertainity. I will sign off a reversal up if this channel turns its downward trajectory and have three closes like this Hi 7800- lo7705 Hi7850-lo7850 Hi7900-lo7875 Such modest hi and lo's will turn the direction of hi-lo channel and its trajectory that's the time to call this uncertainity over- hopefully we should see SOX should comeback to around 385 -90 area and the bonds are hovering at 115,29 ready to take on the next level. A violent 250 point move in a single day until next 10 days will not remove the uncertainity it will have to be a modest reversal- after 10 days even a violent breakup needs a slow building base if this price-channel needs to change direction. Take WSJ chart to plot the hi and lo channel- off-topic- (Ike flirtations and non-sensical talks) JT this is my disclaimer for my inquisitors- my minds just flow free and I divulge it all to you-and my friends -but some travel from far and wide to listen to this mad man? Why- may be they can't let their minds go free in limitless space of time and history only madman do it with pride.. \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| View SubjectMarksBookmark this Subject Return to Market Trends and Strategies One or more words separated by spaces: Subject Titles Only Full-Text Messages with Links <Picture> Send questions and feedback to webmistress@techstocks.com Terms of Use

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