SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: mishedlo who wrote (21491)11/8/2004 7:40:40 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
mish, those are some tried and true deflation arguments, but i think you are stating them outside the context of USD's going downtown. the only solution to the current imbalances is for other currencies to rise against USD, and this will definitely cause higher cost of money in the states and more expensive imports, raw materials, etc. so i would say people will be consuming less, but unit costs are going up. the only thing up in the air, as i see it, is the WHEN. who knows where the tipping point is, but i wouldn't be pressing my luck on USD with $700 billion C/A deficit looming next year as the Iraq quagmire deepens.

and let's not forget all the sentimental reasons people around the world have to switch to something besides USD. basically, a worldwide boycott of US hegemony--that's what you'll have in EUR-based crude and gold-backed dinar. not to mention widespread hatred of US is causing consumers in places like Europe to boycott all and sundry US products.

as for interest rates, ask yourself what Greenspan does to the policy rate at UDX 75 with the Asian LDC CBs abandoning the greenback. ironically, perhaps, it looks like high crude could force the foreign CBs' hands, eh.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News