Ramsey, Hughes winning that $1.2bn Arab satellite venture to give mobile phone to cover Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Central Asia, Turkey and parts of Europe is interesting. They plan to compete with Globalstar obviously.
To launch by 2000, so they are coming in late. Coverage of 1.8 bn people they say. Thuraya Project Manager Yousuf al-Sayed said the cost of the project over 12 years was estimated at $1.2 billion. So they are planning on taking their time getting it all in the air.
It isn't clear, but I guess they are talking geostationary satellites. One a year for 10 years would add up to about that much. But that means voice delay and unhappy customers. Also frequently flat batteries sending a signal to 35 000 km compared with Globalstar's 1400 km and Iridium's 800 or so!
Maybe they are going to have the satellites circle the equator at low altitude and just provide service over the area they nominated. That makes sense because power supply is a major constraint with satellites. Charge the batteries during the rest of the trip and give service when overhead the Indian Ocean.
Either way, it is competition looming. Profits are so extreme that there will be many people trying to get into the act.
But I don't think there will be that much in it for Qualcomm, unless they get to sell the handsets. I suppose it will be CDMA based, so they will also get royalties. Plus gizzards design as they did for Globalstar. It all helps.
Beefeater, even in India where there are nearly a billion people, there are huge areas where there will never be terrestrial mobile service because the cost of the cellsites and infrastructure is too high for the number of customers in the area. Satellites will increasingly provide a cheaper and better service.
When you look at the vast unpopulated tracts of USA, Russia, China and Australia [and many other places], you can see that there are huge areas where the relatively few people will still want phone service. They are not all impoverished either.
The cost of calls will be able to drop to more like 10 cents a minute than $1 per minute when the sky is full of satellites and probably at lower altitudes. Handsets will be better and smaller. Battery life better as chips, power management and signal handling improve. At those prices, lumps of steel towers spread around the countryside for few people simply won't compete.
I'm sure more than enough customers will be ready and waiting for Globalstar service the day it is offered at $1 per minute. Even with the clunky handsets, risk of broken legs behind northerly rocky outcrops in Alaska and the absence of service in planes over the north pole.
Mqurice |
