I think he is already dead but they are keeping the news under cover in order to give the rest of the Palestinian Authority a chance to come up with a unifying successor, to avoid what would naturally follow otherwise - bloodshed among possible leaders and their followers until one would emerge strong and claim leadership.
Personally, I doubt if anyone can emerge as a strong and unifying leader to fill Arafat's shoes at this point. He intentionally has not groomed nor designated anyone as his successor, and none of the current players, at least those outside of Israeli prisons, have credibility in the eyes of the Palestinian people as politician AND soldier. If a mere politician picks up the leadership, he will have no control over those who favor violence against Israel. If a terrorist picks it up, Israel will not recognize his leadership and refuse to deal with him, while continuing to happily mushroom their settlements in occupied territories.
In short, my two cents on the most likely scenario going forward is that the news of Arafat's demise breaks out soon, a bit of an infighting ensues among Palestinians re who gets to be the next leader, who will inevitably be weak because he will not have sufficient credibility as both a soldier and a politician. Israel finds a reason not to deal with the guy, thereby giving more time to their growth of illegal settlements, knowing full well that there will be no pressure whatsoever from the US at least for another four years. Palestinians blow themselves up and kill Israeli civilians. Israeli army attacks the refugee camps in revenge and kill Palestinian civilians. Those civilians' kids and loved ones go and blow themselves up in Israeli cafes and busses, killing more innocents, and so on and so forth. |
