Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (15387)	11/10/2004 12:09:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

buckeroo on OC housing prices I'm a resident of Orange County and have been downloading the monthly Dataquick data on the local home prices for a couple years. One thing that really annoys me is how the media report only year-over-year price changes. While I understand the volatility of month-to-month reporting, it tends to ignore changes in recent months. As I look at the trend, a serious spike occured in the first two quarters of the year. However, since June the price/sqft (my preferred metric) has dropped 2-3%. It is not that the appreciation is slowing which one might infer by the year-over-year data, but the prices are actually dropping. That combined with the rise in housing stock available for sale tells me that a real trend towards depreciation is likely to stick. How deep it will go, I have no idea. Real estate investing is not my are of expertise, but I know how to draw a chart. Folks, Orange County depreciation has already started. Fortunately, I'm up 2.5x from my 1998 house purchase, and none of my refi's were cash-out. Buckaroo

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