I posted this on Big Dog's thread, so if you read it there you can skip it here. Or if you are not interested in Elliott Waves, feel free to click on NEXT.
My DSL has been down for several days and I could not post. So, now I would like to add some fuel to the fire regarding Jim_P's suggestion that this is this the end of an OSX cycle.
To give another perspective, I will give you my Elliott Wave analysis. First, let's look at the daily chart.
stockcharts.com.
It looks like the extended wave 5 was completed in October and the ABC correction is in place. It has retraced 50% of the Impulse wave that started in March. This is a normal correction. However, a correction down to 108 is still possible. But it looks to me right now like the next impulse wave has started. The dashed gray line on the chart is my first guess on it, but I am not very confident of this prediction. WeShallSee in a day or two.
At any rate, this correction would seem to be nearly exhausted, if not actually completed. So, the near term looks good.
Now let's take a look at the longer term chart.
stockcharts.com.
First notice the previous impulse wave that started in July '02 and completed in June of '03. It was followed by the correction wave that bottomed in October of '03. This corrected 61.8% of the previous impulse wave - a lovely Fib number.
The present impulse wave appears to be in the 4th sub-wave down of the 3rd wave up. That is, we still have sub-wave 5 to complete wave 3 up before the 4th wave down starts. Ideally this wave 3 will top out somewhere around 140. At that time wave 4 will correct down similar to wave 2 (which was from March to June of this year.) Then wave 5 will take us to uncharted highs before this cycle is completed.
The dashed blue lines represent my best guess about the defining channel for this impulse wave. We will know better when wave 3 is completed how to draw this channel.
So, now my summary. I think we are in a strong impulse wave up that has much longer to go. It is steeper and the first waves are much longer than the previous cycle, as you can see from the chart. I used this correction as a buying opportunity and am quite bullish because the pattern is developing very nicely from and Elliott Wave standpoint.
I think Jim_P is premature, but then I have been wrong before and will be wrong many more times before I quit playing these markets. Jim has a stellar record at calling tops, which makes me a little nervous.
WeShallSee!!!!!
Best to all,
JRH |
