Dear Pat,
You have indicated that AMTX may be considering various sources
of financing (secondary; private sources; merger/buy-out, etc.
etc.). All 3 options have been debated at length on this
thread. But I guess the buyout option has not been considered
in as much detail. I firmly believe that AMTX, logically, should
already be a buyout candidate. This is based on the following
premise:
1) This technology is very hot - and the market is already very huge,
and can be so large in future that for many/most networking companies,
it can not be ignored.
2) You have to intuitively see the logic of this point:
This technology is complex - a newcomer cannot come in just like
that and develop *practical & competitive* technology which can be
marketed SOON. Sure you can buy some XDSL company (there are many)
or hire many people but sometimes having the right people (can be just
one person) could be critical. As an aside, I am a (ordinary)
computer science researcher but IMHO, I do believe that in just so
many research we undertake, even having one right person can make a
lot of difference. And getting people now a days with right
background is getting *so* difficult (I think most people running
technology company would be probably aware of this).
3) AMTX competitors MAY already be having problem in meeting their
commitments (consider ALCATEL - by what I have read on the net, and
the WSTL conference call).
4) AMTX DMT technology is the standard technology, as declared by the
relevant professional societies.
5) AMTX does has limited cash reserves only (this point can be
deleted from my premise without adversely effecting my conclusions
greatly)
Thus, this late in game, with a technology so complex, a market so huge,
with many competitors already having problems, with AMTX owning many
patents and with their technology considered the superior one,
it looks highly logical to me that their must exist at least one
buy-out/merger offer for AMTX. Especially because the XDSL game
already begun quite a while back (Gary Seamans said something
to same effect in his conference call - 1997 is they key year where
the winning deals are being forged, and partnerships/contracts being
made). Redundantly speaking, there must be a buyout offer
for AMTX at this moment.
If the above is true, then I want to solicit some opinions as to
what should be the price which AMTX should demand? My guess
is AMTX = 30 + X, where 0 < X < SOME_LARGE_NUMBER will depend upon
the personal preference (mine set to 5; i.e. stock price of 35);
I hope negative values for X will not be allowed :)
What do you all say? My logic as outlined above may not be
impeccable, or may not be stated in most rigorous manner (I
apologize for that - I am an ORDINARY scientist) but I am
increasingly believing in the above.
Questions
1) WHAT SHOULD AMTX BID FOR?
2) IS A BUY-OUT/MERGER GOOD FOR THEM?
3) WHO CAN BE THEIR BIDDER?
Best regards,
-Bhakta |
