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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (21646)	11/11/2004 10:16:12 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) of 110194

biz.yahoo.com Based on PMI's Risk Index model, as of November 2004, the average risk value of the 50 largest MSAs is 186. This implies that on average, there exists an 18.6 percent probability of an overall house price decline, as measured within the next two years and across the 50 largest housing markets. The autumn 2004 average risk value of the 50 largest MSAs increased sequentially, quarter-over-quarter, by 8.8 percent. As of August 2004, PMI Risk Index data showed that the average risk value of the 50 largest MSAs was 171, which implied a 17.1 percent probability of an overall house price decline, measured within the next two years and across the 50 largest housing markets. It seems like Denver area should have a higher than 25% probability, based on this article. rockymountainnews.com

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