NFL Underdogs: Week 10
Ryan Stetson
All the trends had me due for a perfect 3-0 record last week.
It didn’t happen.
And that only strengthens my ongoing argument that trends are overrated anyway. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself.
But both the Cards and Bears won outright while Houston stumbled at Denver, so I came out of the week with a solid 2-1 mark.
Not perfect, but not bad, either. And I've got a good feeling about this week.
Detroit +3 at Jacksonville
Byron Leftwich has almost single-handedly won four games for the Jags this season. And now that he’s out at least a week or two with a sprained knee, Jacksonville will find out just how badly they need him on the field.
David Garrard, who has a grand total of one NFL start, will take the snaps until Leftwich is healthy and it’s safe to say Jacksonville’s offensive game plan has changed accordingly.
The club plans to run the ball all day, mixing in a few quarterback draws, a bootleg or two, and maybe a couple screens if Jack Del Rio’s feeling saucy. Garrard ran for more than 1200 yards in college with East Carolina and has 25 carries for 139 yards and two majors in four career NFL games.
So if the Jags get any kind of yardage through the air, it’ll be gravy.
The problem with this sort of game plan is Jacksonville wasn’t a good running team with Leftwich, a legitimate passing threat, dropping back in the pocket. The Jags are putting up about 91 yards per game on the ground for the year. Now that Garrard’s back there, the Lions will hell-bent on stopping the run.
Especially since Garrard is tipping his hand like he’s just downed nine beers at the poker table.
"I don't just go out there and say, 'I don't know what's going on, so let's just run.' But if people are covered, I'm not going to throw the ball away. I'd rather run with it," Garrard told reporters this week.
“I love to get hit.”
Really? Detroit’s defensive line will probably be more than happy to help you out with that, Dave. Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson have probably been dreaming about fumble-forcing, helmet-flying hits all week. And now that Dre Bly is back in top form in the secondary, the defense looks like it's due for a big game.
Still, the Lions will probably have a tough time moving the chains. No big surprise there, but Mooch says they’re going to stick with the running game even if it stalls early. Kevin Jones will be taking more carries after missing two games, and playing sparingly in two others as he recovered from a sprained ankle.
That’s a good plan. If Jones can manage at least 80 yards or so, that will open up the passing game for Joey Harrington. And that'll be enough to cover the three points.
Houston +9 at Indianapolis
This pick has very little to do with the Texans. Promise.
Until the Colts start consistently winning by double digits, I’m fading ‘em every time the books come out with a line like this for the rest of the year. Every single time.
On a really good day, Peyton Manning’s offense could probably destroy any defense in the NFL. When the Colts are clicking, they usually win big. Three of their five wins have come by 10 or more points.
Still, I’m not convinced.
Problem is the Colts still can’t play defense and their sexy offense hasn’t done enough to make the club a reliable favorite when it sees fat chalk.
The logic behind this week’s line escapes me. About a month ago the books had Indy set as a 9-point chalk at home against Oakland.
The Raiders.
Of course, the Colts spanked the listless Silver and Black and grabbed the cash. But since then, Indy’s dropped two of its last three and is set as a 9-point favorite against a Houston club that is significantly better than the Raiders.
I don’t get it.
Indy should put some points on the board in this one, but the Colts own the No. 31 total defense in the league and are allowing more than 33 points a game over the last three. And they're up against David Carr and Houston’s eighth-best total offense.
The Texans had a tough time with Denver last week, but they’ll be better Sunday. It might be a shootout, but Houston will still be in the mix as the fourth quarter winds down. Nine points is just too many.
Cincinnati +3 at Washington
I find it hard to believe the Redskins are this bad. But they are. Maybe worse.
Sure they beat Detroit 17-10 last week as a 3-point dog, but coach Joe Gibbs was so confident in his passing game with Mark Brunell taking the snaps that the 'Skins threw the ball just twice during the second half.
That says something about Washington's offense.
"I feel I can trust him (Brunell) to throw the ball,” Gibbs said in a press conference this week. “I didn't want to throw the ball. Me - Joe Gibbs - called the plays and I didn't let him throw the football. I had made up my mind that with the way we were running the football and the fact that I didn't think they could score on our defense, I didn't want to make a mistake with the ball in any way.”
So it’ll be Brunell, who finished 6-for-17 through the air for just 58 yards against Detroit, starting again this week while Patrick Ramsay watches the carnage from the sideline.
And that means Washington is going to need another big day from Clinton Portis. The 5-foot-11, 205-pounder rumbled for 147 rushing yards and a major against Detroit and faces a Cincinnati defense that is allowing about 150 yards per game on the ground this season.
But the Bengals' ‘D’ is improving. Over the last three, Cincy’s allowing about 13 points per tilt and 130 rushing yards. Last week the Bengals defense came up big in forcing five turnovers as they stomped the Cowboys 26-3 as 1 1/2-point underdogs. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer is finally starting to look confident and comfortable in the pocket. Over the last three, he has the Bengals putting up about 23 points per contest.
This week will be the real test for Cincinnati. The club hasn’t won or covered on the road yet this year.
But I see something in this Bengals club. That win at Denver two weeks ago was a huge confidence booster and Cincy looked great in spanking the Cowboys last week. If they can keep Portis from running wild and manage to take care of the football they should be able to get out of Washington with their first road win of the year.
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