Thanks, Jerry, very interesting and very informative, especially the exit poll analysis by Prof Freeman. So interesting, in fact, is it that I've taken the liberty to post the nitty-gritty of the report here.
>>.... given that the exit poll [for Ohio] received was between 49.8% and 54.4%. And because half of the 1 in 20 cases that fall outside the interval would be high rather than low, we're 97.5 percent sure that the true percentage he received was at least 49.8%. We are 99.5% sure that sure that the true percentage he received was at least 49.2%. It turns out that the likelihood that he would have received only 48.5% of the vote is less than one in one thousand (.0008).
Conducting the same analysis for Florida, we find that Kerry's 47.1% of the vote is likewise outside the 99% confidence interval. The likelihood of his receiving only 47.1%, given that the exit polls indicated 49.7%, is less than three in one thousand (.0028).
Kerry's count is also outside the 99% confidence interval in the third critical battleground state, Pennsylvania. Although he did carry the state, the likelihood of his receiving only 50.8% given that the exit polls indicated 54.1% is less than two in one thousand (.0018).
The likelihood of any two of these statistical anomalies occurring together is on the order of one-in-a-million. The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one. As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error.<<
And then -- nothing happens. Only the bloggers pick up this pearl of statistical "evidence" and, because they do, it is immediately rubbished and cast into the trash can by the main stream media. But who can be surprised? The main stream media is as much part of the conspiracy against the American people as is their very government.
Indeed, the Democrats have done nothing (as usual), in fact, Kerry and Edwards are nowhere to be seen. After the way they gallantly conceded defeat, it's almost as if they don't want to hear it was statistically impossible that they could have lost the election. |
