Bush's re-election: a win for the neo-cons
The re-election of George W. Bush, achieved largely through the mobilisation of the evangelical Christian vote, will have far-reaching and disastrous consequences both for American democracy and the world.
The 2004 election represents a further stage in the decay and crisis of the American political system. It is the culmination of a strategy, developed by the Republicans over the past three decades, of cultivating religious fundamentalists to create a mass base for social reaction and militarism. The corporate and financial oligarchy has fashioned its own Frankenstein monster - a force whose political and social agenda is incompatible with the secular constitutional foundations of the United States and the maintenance of traditional democratic norms. The re-election was by no means the popular endorsement of the Bush administration and its policies. The incumbency factor of being a 'war president' also played its part. But it also revealed a starkly polarised country, portraying a broad and deeply felt opposition to Bush and the Iraq war. The result of the vote will further aggregate the political power in the hands of the extreme right, which will control all three branches of government - the executive, the legislative and the judiciary - with the Republicans increasing their majority in the Senate.
In the external dimension, any hopes that the second Bush administration will be less aggressive and unilateral are a non-sequitur. Washington is likely to continue moving in an isolationist direction, or at least one that further estranges the United States from its European allies, consistent with the administration's unilateralist tendencies. The hardliners and neo-conservatives led by Vice President Dick Cheney are likely to be strengthened. The almost-certain departure of Secretary of State Colin Powell, will remove the only real counter-force to Cheney and Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, whose fate is uncertain. Cheney's post-election declaration that Bush now has a 'mandate' - despite scraping by with a bare 51pc majority - signals the inner circle's conviction that the election itself confirms the essential righteousness of their global agenda, beginning with its decision to invade Iraq as part of the 'war on terrorism'.
The world should expect to see the US administration acting in a more paranoid way, lashing out at external enemies, real or imagined, in its 'war on terrorism'. The Muslim world should anticipate more discrimination and pressure. Thus Bush's enunciation that he will exert to meet the objectives of the war on Iraq, sounds ominous. Notwithstanding the empirical evidence, that the reasons for going to war were exposed as hypocritical lies, Bush and his Pentagon juggernaut are going to pummel Iraq with a renewed vigour.
After Iraq, Iran presents Bush with his biggest challenge. The US, along with Israel and Europe, is confident that Iran, in spite of denials, is intent on securing the capability of producing a nuclear weapon within the next three years. The US and Israel seem hell-bent on preventing Iran acquiring a bomb and the only way of stopping Tehran could be to launch a pre-emptive strike against its nuclear facilities.
Bush also, cannot procrastinate on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But he is limited by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan, to withdraw from Gaza next year. He needs to put pressure on the Israelis to give as much slack as possible to the Palestinians to ensure that Gaza does not end up as an open prison, as the Palestinians claim. He should also press the Israelis to allow the Palestinians to have their own airport and seaport and to have freedom of movement to the outside world through Egypt.
Syria is also expected to receive more attention from the Bush administration, as it sees the former's policies as inimical to the US strategic interests.
Nearer home, the Bush re-election has given a fresh lease to the Musharraf regime in Pakistan. Musharraf is going to use the renewed American support to adopt more hard-line policies against the recalcitrant opposition. On the other hand, he is feeling confident to reach-out for the heretofore-marginalized political opponents like Benazir. We should also expect a surge in military operations in the South Waziristan Agency. But his ambition so far is limited to the plan by the Israeli Prime Minister, to withdraw from Gaza next year.
Mr Bush will try to put pressure on the Israelis to give as much slack as possible to the Palestinians to ensure that Gaza does not end up as an open prison, as the Palestinians claim. He will press the Israelis to allow the Palestinians to have their own airport and seaport and to have freedom of movement to the outside world through Egypt.
Pakistan would also expect the Americans to broker an Indo-Pak deal on Kashmir - albeit from behind the scenes.
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