Well, tomorrow is the eighth anniversary of this thread.
Anybody learn anything about investing from being here lo these many years?
In some ways I did, and in some I did not. I've learned (and am still learning) that there are many types of value investing, there are many ways to value stocks, and that there may not be one best way for everybody. I am one who continues though to seek out and believe in "the one best way", i.e. a normative approach.
I also still have maintained my prejudices. Such as my belief that you've got to be fairly old to make and keep money through value investing. Age gives a larger bankroll, gives scar tissue, teaches patience, reduces angst. (You're probably not, I hope, trying to quickly make an improving lifestyle change if you're a "mature person" - it's too late! - by trying to quickly boost up a small bankroll into big bucks.) Also, I suspect that after one has lived through several cycles - real estate, stocks, precious metals, business ("we centralized, then we decentralized, then a few years later we centralized again"), morality (outlaw gambling becomes -- regulate gaming), dividends (ignore 'em vs. they are important) etc. etc. one comes to a different viewpoint about risk and possibilities when one looks at stocks. Like they can go much higher than you would've believed and/or they can - and sometimes do - crash and burn. Sometimes just because. Ergo my belief continues that there are NO "no brainers". We just never know what might happen. It's not an academeic acceptance of risk - it is something that becomes internalized - burned in after seeing one's capital decimated, or friends wiped out, and trying to come back from all that.
I've learned to trust people's opinions here a little more, and am more willing to bet on them once in a while. That's maybe not so good, since my preference is that every stock idea or proposal be evaluated on its merits alone, with no significance to be ascribed to the person who brings forth the idea. But that doesn't work sometimes when you've seen the person's style and their picks over many years, and how those stocks have worked out.
Noteworthy also for me, if several people recommend a particular stock here, they likely are coming from different viewpoints, and so the stock could maybe have an increased possibility of doing well for many reasons. Also, if a stock is mentioned here, and nobody comments on it, that can be a very good thing too. Sometimes the most despised or unlikely or shamed stocks are just the ones that do so well. You might not see that though because it takes a while - a few years sometimes - for the stock to work out, and if you weren't the one who mentioned it, and there wasn't any discussion on it, then you're likely not to remember it.
In any case, it's been a good thread, and I've used it to document and clarify my ideas. And once in a while I've attempted to share my experiences and assist others as they move along a path I sometimes feel I've already traveled. Of course, I've been bailed out several times too by the advice of others here. I am VERY grateful for that.
Anyway, I've had fun, and I look forward to seeing more good posts here.
Congratulations to all who have posted here and who've made this thread what it is!
Regards!
Paul |
