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Strategies & Market Trends : American Depository Receipts: Value

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (3)8/29/1997 12:40:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen   of 33
 
Re Nokia, But I worry what would happen if that growth
falters.


But of course isn't that a worry with any company? What if CSCO's growth falters, or INTC growth falters, or DELL growth falters. Indeed, I hope Dell is watching over their shoulder, because CPQ is gunning for them -g-.

I won't get into comparing the different ratios vs. growth estimates, but here's something Nokia will have this Fall: The most advanced PCS phone on the US market. You will be able to choose from among 100's of custom rings, available for download from the internet. I know lots of non-technical people that happily buy the newest phone on the market at least once a year.

Regarding T/A: I am much more into T/A now, but more in regards to trends, price vs. volume action, etc. For instance, I am watching with fascination as the DJIA has formed the first 3 parts of a "W" chart formation.

Re If it falls, the value investors won't be there to catch it for another 20 points or so.

If we use the mean First Call FY 98 eps, Nokia has a forward PE of 18.5 - not what I would call over-valued. However, I know how WS can trash a good stock. Twenty points lower could happen, buy I sincerely doubt it. There were absolutely no questionable items in the last report. Also, it helps that Europe is absolutely crazy about cell phones - much more so than in the US.

DK
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