I don't think you are going to get rich playing options unless you have a good idea on the outcome of the trial.
Little chance of that, Peter. I must have a mental block about the industry, probably due to my Christian Scientist-like proclivities. It would be like a luddite becoming a tech stock trader. I just don't have the stomach for the statistics of morbidity and mortality. [A bit of personal supporting background: 4 years ago I took my 83 y.o. mother out of a nursing home, where she had been diagnosed with clinical depression, insomnia, etc. With the help of a new psychiatrist and a family living situation, we were able to gradually wean her off of every one of her psych meds, and she was much healthier and happier and more alert as a result. I don't mean to imply that medication is not efficacious in many cases, I just think that many maladies are simply indicators of some imbalance that is better corrected by a change of diet, exercise, lifestyle, etc., or else perhaps that we are just getting old. But I digress...]
The subject of my information arbitrage meditation of the day was really quite simple. When you get a call out of the blue from someone offering you a ridiculous amount of money for the mineral rights to your backyard which you think is worthless, the wise course of action may not be to take the money, but to call all your neighbors and offer to buy their mineral rights.
Or to put it another way, if the stock market says one thing and the options market says another, the options market is probably right.
Sam |
