Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: GraceZ who wrote (15998)	11/17/2004 1:45:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

The economics of a second term news.ft.com The economics of a second term Ideological and partisan politicians know that elections are not about mandates or checking the people's will. They are about taking the reins of power and using them to realign the balance of interests in society in their favour - either by strengthening supporters' dependence on their programmes or by weakening the programmes of the opposition. The Bush administration understands this, and its radical economic agenda will move forward aggressively as a result. The "Bush II" agenda will not be constrained by bipartisanship, fiscal discipline or even economic reality, because the ultimate motivation is not economic but ideological - to shrink government and weaken Democratic opposition. The three big economic initiatives promised by Mr Bush should therefore be seen for the political thrusts they are. First and most importantly will be the push for partial Social Security privatisation. This policy is at least as much to win over Wall Street - the one big business sector besides Hollywood that has continued contributing to Democrats as much as Republicans - by offering the fees that go with managing hundreds of billions of dollars in private accounts. For the Bush team, the political advantages of boosting asset markets temporarily and again giving those who manage money a direct stake in Republican programmes will outweigh any long-term fiscal costs (which limit government spending anyway). ================================================================ The following comments were posted on the FOOL If this is very likely to happen and if likely to happen soon, the stockmarket could already be repricing itself in anticipation of a rush of capital heading its way. This is serious stuff. And it doesn't matter a hoot if future earnings and cashflows are not affected - we are simply talking about more buyers of stocks than sellers for a while, and aggressive buyers at that. ========================================================= Grace or anyone have some thoughts on the ramifications to the stock market if privatization takes hold? Any odds on privatization? Would the money be significant and immediate, or slow over time? Mish

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