Salah,
You said:
>Revenues excluding new products = 190M
>New Products Revenues = 30M (BorderManager & HostPublisher)
>Note: New products don't work with NW 3.x, this limits the installed
>base that can use these products to only 22M from a total of about
>55M.
Actually, both BorderManager & HostPublisher are quite usable and
useful in any site, whether they run 3.x, 4.x, NT, or something else.
While the products run on a NW 4.11 box, the services they provide
to clients are platform independent.
HostPublisher translates 3270 data streams (mainframe terminal
sessions) to dynamic interactive html pages, allowing anyone with
a web browser to connect to a mainframe. The "installed base" that
can use this product is anyone with a networked computer in any
company with a mainframe, which probably exceeds 200 million. It
is part of the NetWare SAA product line, jointly developed with
and marketed by IBM, and should do quite well even in non-NetWare
shops.
Companies like Wall Data, who sell pricey 3270 terminal emulation
software for PC's ($200+ per seat), should really worry about this
one.
BorderManager is useful to any company that has an Internet
connection. It's a one-box solution that dramatically improves
performance for people "surfing" the web (which might no longer
need to be known as the World Wide Wait), has content filtering,
proxy and firewall capabilities, can function as a secure dial-
in remote access server (like products from Shiva, Livinston, etc.),
includes full multi-protocol routing capabilities that compare
favorably with anything from Cisco, Bay, or 3Com (and blows NT's
"Steelhead" out of the water), and can be used to establish fully encrypted virtual private networks over the Internet between a
company's branches (unlike MS's PPTP which isn't encrypted and
therefore not usable for any business purpose).
To see who this might impact, consider the "competitive" products
eligible for special upgrade pricing: Microsoft Proxy 1.0, Netscape
Proxy Server, Check Point Firewall 1, Raptor Eagle NT, Trusted
Information Systems Gauntlet, Cisco PIX. None of these products do
half of what BorderManager does. You could duplicate most of
BorderManager's features and capabilities with combinations of
other products, but would probably end up spending 5-10X what a
BorderManager installation would cost.
If Novell sells only 100 copies of the 5,000 user level of
BorderManager, and 1,000 copies of the 1,000 user level of BorderManager, and maybe 10,000 copies of the lower levels, they'll
nearly triple your estimted total new product revenue number of $30
million.
I don't think its completely unrealistic to think that within a year
sales of this product alone might be running at a billion $ annual
rate. A LARGE portion of this goes straight to the bottom line.
BTW, I'm not a Novell employee. I run a small network consulting
business. Products like this will be a goldmine for us. We'll make
more money installing, configuring, and supporting each copy of BorderManager and HostPublisher than Novell makes selling it.
Jerry |
