Hard for me to fathom what the military minds are up to, whether it be China, Russia, EU, or USA.
Have I recommended The Pentagon's New Map by Thomas P.M. Barnett to you yet?
amazon.com
It's a very good book, well written, by a military futurist who's got an enthusiastic following here in the US. Not a hawk, in fact, he supported Kerry, but he predicted that Bush would probably win, so his track record is pretty good.
In a nutshell, the world can be divided into the Core, which includes US, EU, Russia, Japan, China, India, Australia, the more advanced Latin American countries like Argentina, the more advanced Middle Eastern countries like Israel, etc. etc. etc., and the Gap, which includes the countries that haven't made it to the Core yet. China is a newish addition to the Core, but it's there.
The military challenge of the 21st century is integrating the Gap countries into the Core, aka globalization. So says Barnett, and I agree.
The conventional military mind being what it is, they will strategize fighting conventional wars against conventional enemies, which, it's fair to say, means that the US military worries about China. A lot.
You and I both know that the main reason for all those carriers is to make the oceans safe for oil tankers to go back and forth between the Indian Ocean and China and for WarMart ships to sail back and forth between China and Los Angeles.
But we also know that's true in 2004, and will be true in 2005, but what happens if China decides that the US is taking too much oil, or that Taiwan is not playing nicely, or Japan is too militaristic?
What happens if North Korea goes nuts and starts lobbing medium range missiles at Hawaii and Los Angeles?
What happens if Iran goes nuts and starts lobbing medium range missiles at Israel?
What happens if India and Pakistan go nuts and start a nuclear war?
I am not smart enough to figure it all out. So that's why we all have military minds working on contingency plans.
It makes sense for China to have satellites. It makes sense for Russia to have missiles. It makes sense for China to have missiles. But war makes no sense at all. |
