Mel,
I read this posting on AOL....
I am posting it here as a quote:
"Well, obviously not everyone is waiting. But I am. Having bought at $1.75 does make it easier to hold, but I didn't buy with intent of selling at 5, 10, or 20. I really don't understand the selling now, at least from this aspect: Anyone who is an INVESTOR (rather than a trader) in this should have understood that ultimately the courts would play their role. And, if the investors did their homework before buying, they should now welcome the approach of the initial (emphasis on initial) court rulings. I suspect that those selling now didn't really do their homework before buying and didn't really have a clear reason for their purchase other than "it's going up", and now they're selling because it's been going down.
The September conference call is not going to be a conclusive event anyway. Even the "Markman" hearing itself, and the decisions from it, are not likely to be absolutely conclusive. I don't think that's understood by most. There are 56 claims in the patent. Worst case, IMO, some of them are narrowed or knocked down by the courts at some point. Even with that, the remainder would likely be very valuable. And those claims, having been thus reaffirmed in a court would stand stronger than they do today when reviewed by other courts in following cases. People seem to have an idea that this is a black-or-white decision to be made by the courts - either the patent is totally accepted or totally rejected - and that is not likely at all.
I don't know how someone can intelligently "trade" this stock. It's strictly event-driven and likely to remain so. Announcements of licensees and news articles arrive at irregular intervals and without warning. Quarterly financials, even after they're reporting regularly, will grow rapidly but erratically and the rate of growth will be directly dependent on new licensing agreements. The licenses the company has announced with the likes of IBM, Adobe and others took, in some cases, months to negotiate. The lead times are long because lawyers are involved.
My point is: As a trader, I don't know how I could trade this confidently in any short-term period. But, as an investor, it looks very good to me. Bottom line: If someone has done their homework and believes the patent will be prosecuted successfully (and it doesn't have to survive in its entirety for business success), then hold on or buy more. Otherwise, I'd say get out of it because there's little basis for short-term speculation in either direction. This is too big an opportunity to miss out on because of stock price movements over a few weeks time. If a stockholder didn't see the opportunity as being that large, he/she shouldn't have purchased it to begin with. And if he did see it that way, it makes no sense to cash out on the eve of first realization of that potential." |
