Industry could take 30 years to recoup 300-mm investments
By Mark LaPedus
Silicon Strategies
11/18/2004, 3:27 PM ET
SAN JOSE, Calif. — It could take a total of 30 years before the semiconductor industry recoups its massive investments in 300-mm technology, leaving some to wonder if fab-tool and IC vendors should move to the next-generation 450-mm wafer size.
Iddo Hadar, managing director of corporate strategy at Applied Materials Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), said that the industry has spent some $20 billion in terms of development costs for 300-mm tools and technologies.
"Will the industry ever recoup its investments in 300-mm?" Hadar asked during a presentation at the Global Economic Symposium, which is sponsored by chip-making consortium International Sematech (Austin, Texas).
Hadar indicated that it could take 30 years to recoup the investments. "Most companies won't survive that long," he joked.
The Applied representative also indicated that the semiconductor industry could move towards 450-mm wafer sizes -- if and only if -- the industry changes its behavior. The 450-mm fabs are expected to emerge between the 2011 to 2015 time frame.
In the 300-mm transition, for example, IC makers tended to start their fab projects and then stop them. especially in the past downturn. This, in turn, pushed out the need for 300-mm tools, making it difficult for vendors to recoup their investments.
Asked if the IC industry would be able to recoup their investments in the 450-mm era, Hadar said it's possible but it would be "longer than the longevity of companies and management." |
