I wonder how china will react if iran attains nukes and reverts to fundamentalism in its fp?
Considering that China has been supplying the Iranian Mad Mullahs with nuclear stuff for some time, it has presumably already concluded that it is in its best interests to deal with the Iranians. No doubt a fundamentalist orientation in Iran's foreign policy was factored in. Not really a change since 1979, when Khomeini took over.
This is what I think China's calculation might be as respects dealing with Iran and supplying it with nuclear designs.
China is/will be a voracious consumer of energy and wants to have a strong commercial relationship with Iran. Having good relations with the Iranians, even if it involves supplying them with warhead designs, is a good thing, particularly as doing so makes the Russians and others, including the US, nervous. There is no chance that the Iranians would use nukes on the Chinese, so there is no real possibility that its activities would backfire.
Think of the Chinese as the French of Asia--a large country with no energy resources of its own but with a lot to trade and a desire to make an impression on world politics. Economic development is its primary goal. It will do anything, including supplying warhead designs, to foster this goal, particularly since the warheads will never target China but will instead pressure China's adversaries. Since it presumably got some sort of guarantees/promises on oil, giving nukes to Iran is a more than good trade. From a Chinese standpoint, a no-brainer, even if all kinds of non-proliferation agreements are broken. What can anyone do to effectively punish the Chinese for this? Not much.
As part of any understanding withthe Iranians, implicit or explicit, China will back Iran in the Security Council should it get into trouble with the IAEA.
Iran feels like it is in the cat bird's seat now. That's why it arrogantly said the enrichment freeze would last only 3-4 months barely a couple of days after it was announced.
There is a lot going on at the moment with the Iranian nuclear issue which we cannot possibly imagine. The Israelis were supplied with bunker busters; we have developed a nuclear bunker buster. The Iranians certainly know this, and are probably very skittish.
We'll see. Keep your seat belt on. Interesting ride coming up in the next few months. |
