More ebay stuff i worked on
November 19, 2004
1. Sales for F2004e are expected at $3,253.3
Sales for F2005e are expected at $4,299.2
This is a growth rate of 32.15%. If you extrapolate various growth rates, based on F2004e revenues, you get the following:
25% CAGR, 10 years, PV of $3,253.3 you get FV of F2014 of $30,296M.
15% CAGR, 10 years, PV of $3,253.3 you get FV of F2014 of $13,164M.
It is interesting to see, that eBay's current market cap is still selling at a price to F2014 Revenues of 2.54 when using a 25% CAGR, and 5.85X when using a 15% revenue CAGR.
2. The current market cap. of eBay at $110 per share and a share count of 700M shares (current is 680,415) is $77B.
Grid of selected companies
Company current price market cap est revenues(m) est eps Price/Revenues Price/earnings
eBay $110 $77.00B $3,253.3e $1.21 23.67 90.91
GM $39.88 $22.50B $156,760e $5.35 (05e) 00.14 7.45
QCOM $41.28 $65.53B $5,704 e (05) $1.15 (05e) 11.49 35.90
AMZN $39.00 $16.93B $6,832 $0.96 2.48 40.63
Alcoa $33.74 $29.34B $23,938 1.64 1.23 20.57
Sears $53.00 $10.60B $36,400 1.55 0.29 34.19
NY Times $41.27 $ 6.04B $3,300 1.95 1.83 21.16
You see that eBay carries a market cap of $77Billion. That is greater than the total market caps of all of the following companies combined. GM + Alcoa + Sears + NY Times . The market cap of these 4 companies is only 68.48B. Hence, even if eBay dropped to 97.83, the value would still be greater than the companies I mentioned. The total annual revenues for the companies I mentioned are $220Billion for 2004. As you can see, if we extrapolate eBay's revenues by 25% growth rate, every year for 10 years, they would end up with $30B of revenues, in 10 years. Keep in mind that eBay's profit margin is much greater than the 4 companies I mentioned in this paragraph.
rbcpa.com |
