Hi Reid,
The long awaited correction seems to be in full swing right now.... volume pretty heavy today so far, with a very bearish candle on the day (so far).
I can't believe it. Somebody finally stated the obvious (re nosediving dollar, exploding deficit, etc.... That somebody happened to be Greenspan, so the markets really are getting ctrl-alt-del'd into reality today.
Here's an interesting story, true also. I took several years of statistics, and early on, they were talking about correlational analysis. The instructor explained the concept of correlation and its relationship to causation. On campus, there was a big bell tower, and at noon they would play music on the bells. It was very enjoyable, so a lot of people would sit out on the grass and eat their lunch while listening to the bells.
So, our statistics instructor said, "Let's imagine that today, after class, you go out to the grass.... you open your lunch, pull out a sandwich, and just as you take a bite, the bells start ringing. You take note of that. Then next day at noon you go out to the grass again, pull out a sandwich, and lo and behold, just as you take a bit, you notice the bells start ringing. You make observations every day after this, and eventually you discover that the calculated correlation coefficient is very high. There is a definite, highly significant relationship between the two variables.
So, what can you conclude?
Did (A) the bells ringing cause you to eat your sandwich?
or (B) did you eating your sandwich cause the bells to ring?
That was many years ago, but I never forgot that story.... or the limitations of correlational analysis.
Terry
P.S. Sure, you can do whatever you like with that link. Maybe we can use that information to start a new web-based stock recommendation service. We can call it "Nice Dreams Ice Cream System Stock Picks" <ggg> |
