Yup. The management panic at MSFT began several years ago and will continue. Ballmer's linux reaction of the last few days and the extremely silly @ss threat of litigation against Asian countries underline that.
Perhaps there will be a release of Windows 2014, 2036, 2057, etc. It seems certain to me that the core software product will not be the same lagging piece of stuff that's shipped on 94% of all PCs today.
Recall, IBM once ruled the roost and went through a very similar impotent spasm of reaction in in the late 80s/early 90s. IBM isn't dead, but it's clearly no longer cock of the walk.
The only reason I'm not short MSFT is that the volatility has been low given the price is being managed in such a way as to allow insiders to escape comfortably, IMHO of course. I'm accustomed to faster turnaround on my short positions. What do you think of VRSN or PLMO?
QwikSand wrote:
Here's a prediction for ya, Schmandy.
Microsoft is a SELL.
Longhorn will follow a trajectory similar to that of the moribund Itanic.
By the time it comes out in 2007, nobody will care. It will be Microsoft's first--and last--total failure releasing a Windows OS. Unix/Linux will meanwhile enjoy a major global surge. MSFT will be left frantically milking the shrinking Windows XP and Office franchises as the software scene passes them by. The revenues from their games, search engines, MSN and cell phone ventures will not come close to replacing their unravelling monopolies.
In a rear-guard action, they will discard the failed SCOX sock puppet scheme in favor of stepped-up direct patent litigation in their own name. If you see this start to happen it will constitute PROOF POSITIVE of management panic at MSFT.
I wish I could say that this means a second chance for Sun, but at the moment there's no obvious evidence of that. There is evidence to the contrary as Sun continues to thrash strategically as revenues stagnate, new products slip, and management's revolving door looks more like a centrifuge.
On the other hand, BWTFDIK.
--QS |
