Hi Reid,
I think you are right.
QQQ has rallied roughly 8% from the election (I consider the rally to have started a bit before the election). I haven't checked the history of post-election rallies, but my guess is that's probably about par for the course. Do you think so?
Light sweet crude has now bounced beautifully off support at 46, has buy signals in place, put in a very bullish candle on Friday, and volume is ramping up.
futuresource.com
As for Fallujah, the victories may inspire the market in the short/medium term, since they imply resolution and hence less uncertainty. But eventually, this effect will become attenuated because it will become increasingly obvious that there is no foreseable resolution that will be conclusive and lasting.
I suspect the Fallujah victory is psychological and short-lived. The insurgents are like cockroaches... when things get too hot, they scatter, only to regroup and continue their infestation in 5 or 10 new nests. About the only thing that was really accomplished in Fallujah is that the dumber insurgents stayed around long enough to get annihilated and become dubious "heroes" and "martyrs" to scads of others who will become inspired/coaxed into becoming involved. That sort of "natural selection" of insurgents does very little productive in the long run, IMHO. And I think it very unwise to underestimate the skill with which these guys can create propaganda and influence attitudes, opinions, judgements, and actions in the Arab world. Bin Laden is brilliant at this, and others have learned well from him. I think the potential power of this has been vastly underestimated today, particularly by the U.S.
Goebbels sure used it to wield tremendous power in even more improbable circumstances among an entire nation of people, the vast majority of whom were perfectly normal---no ranting/raving psychotic tendencies are required at all.
But anyhow, there are much more important issues. Here is one:
beecy.net
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