Today's BusinessWeek has a good one on topic Sparky. If you believe this model sales will explode over the next two years, and equipment suppliers would logically do very well. Unlike Merrill's Krulak, this guy is not in the business of selling securities:
"THE MAN WHO CAN SEE THE FUTURE FOR CHIPS"
Dauvin of SGS is uncanny at calling industry swings . . .
Every major semiconductor company has its own resident forecaster. Several market researchers and Wall Street analysts also maintain computerized financial barometers. Then there is the cooperative statistical effort by the Semiconductor Industry Association and its counterparts in Europe and Asia. So there is no lack of semiconductor oracles. Yet, in semiconductor circles, Dauvin is famous for gazing at his crystal ball and foretelling industry swings ahead of the pack. SGS has been exploiting his insights, grabbing market share from competitors and steadily climbing in industry rankings....
So what does this new model foretell? For starters, the chip market will double by 2000 and hit $290 billion to $300 billion. Dauvin holds to that outlook, despite the recent plunge in memory-chip prices that has prompted many gurus to lower their sights to $250 billion or less. That's too low, Dauvin insists, because ``there is no disconnect in the long-term trend'' of 16.4% annual growth. This year's 6% growth rate is way below the line, but Dauvin asserts it will soon be made up, with sales climbing at least 20% in 1998 and then zooming 30% higher in 1999.
As for the next downturn, Dauvin says it's not in the cards before mid-2001, when a gradual buildup of capacity could sap prices again. Or it might hold off until 2002. Should things change, Dauvin trusts his model to sound an alert. By reacting sooner than its rivals, SGS expects to continue enlarging its piece of the silicon pie. |
