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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (22162)	11/20/2004 8:03:15 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Jay, There have been several new developments which point to bad news as far as the pandemic is concerned. It may make 1918 look like a walk in the park recombinomics.com The latest major event was finding that the H5N1 that kills 70-80% of people it infects doesn't bother ducks at all. Not only aren't the ducks sick, but they have lots of virus which they excrete by the bucket-full and the virus is quite stable so it hangs around waiting for someone to step in it and track it wherever. Having lots of H5N1 around is bad news, which creates a very unfavorable environment (for humans - the virus is in 7th heaven). There have been lots of examples of H5N1 recombining with H9N2 recombinomics.com which is also bad news because H9N2 is the most prevelant serotype in Asia and some versions already have the ability to recognize human receptors, setting the stage for human to human transmission. Thus H5N1 recombined with H9N2 can generate the feared recombinant, a virus that can kill humans very efficiently and also be transmistted from one human to another. Migrating birds provide a vector for much mixing and matching (and dead birds falling from the sky present an excellent opportunity for infecting any wild or domestic animal that eats them) recombinomics.com On the treatment side, the situation is not good either. The virus is already resistant to Amantadine and Ramantadine, so the only real antiviral left is Tamiflu. However, Tamiflu is much more effective against human influenza than the H5N1 from Vietnam or Thailand. In Thailand Tamiflu was used at high concentrations to save the infected tigers in the zoo and most or all of the exposed tigers died or were euthanized recombinomics.com It remains to be seen what the new season brings, but a recombinant with all of the bad features would not be a surprise recombinomics.com which would place a premium on cave-dwelling.

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