The XMSR tout, with his longer and longer posts, basically tries to treat XMSR as a value play, when compared to SIRI. He misses the reality of the world of both.
He proclaimed the same message when Stern announced his move and here are the results of both.
finance.yahoo.com
Not many would argue with him in that at current levels, the balance sheet and current operations of XMSR are better than SIRI.
However, in his love and desperation to tout XMSR, he misses the point that I have made here and that is that BOTH ARE VALUED AS HYPE AND BOTH ARE MOVING ON HYPE.
As a value play, XMSR would be valued at no more than $10 a share. IT'S AT $35+ BECAUSE OF HYPE.
So given the hype and the fact that both are really a gambler's play, which has the better likelihood of creating more hype?
The answer is clear. XMSR is dead in the water. There is no other major talent that can push the hypemeter. Opie and Anthony are poor, no talent clones of Howard, who push the envelope further but beyond the point where a mass will listen. MLB will draw very few listeners.
Over the next 2 years, there will be a series of news releases that will be coming from Stern and Karmazin, each of which will generate more hype.
So - as I've suggested I would never buy either as a value play. If I were to pick a play to "gamble" on, there is no question that SIRI is the one to play. The XMSR tout will look back at 35 and see that he will continue to be wrong in terms of where XMSR will go in comparison to SIRI over the next 2 years.
The fact that those who touted XMSR over the past several years were rewarded by its superior financials is immaterial. What has XMSR or SIRI done for investors since Stern was acquired? The clear winner here has been SIRI and this trend will continue.
Again, I'm not hyping SIRI and in a bad market or in a correction of hype, investors could very easily lose on both. However, for the hype player, the gambler, who wishes to bet on this new media, betting that it will replace terrestrial radio, the clear gamble should be on SIRI and not XMSR, despite the love of a long-winded tout. |
