Barnett - Another good take on Putin's "silver bullet"
¦"Putin: Russia to Deploy Missiles 'Unlikely to Exist' Elsewhere," by Peter Finn, Washington Post, 18 November 2004, p. A25.
Besides Putin reminding us that Russia mattered, this story offers another reason why he made this announcement about a new nuclear missile system that is unique: he wants to be able to declare that, as far as Russia is concerned, our new missile defense system is no big deal.
True or not? Doesn't matter. Only the declaration matters. He's saying that as far as he and Russia are concerned, mutually-assured destruction between them and us is not altered one whit.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:51 PM
Iran's "Nixon" Considering Getting Kicked Around Again
¦"Lion of Iranian Politics May Return for Run at Presidency," by Robin Wright, Washington Post, 16 November 2004, p. A19.
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was the president of Iran from 1989 to 1997. He was considered the "face of moderation in Iran" during his rule, following Ayatollah Khomeni's death. What marked his time? He opened up Iran considerably to outside connectivity, to include reviving the Shah's stock market and letting Beethoven music and Arthur Miller's plays to be performed in Tehran.
Sounds like détente with the Sovs, does it not.
Rafsanjani was succeeded by the presumed Gorby-like reformer Mohammad Khatami, who apparently has little expectation of being approved by the resurgent mullahs to run again. Khatami's plans for Iran has not born much fruit, and instead suffered a reactionary setback following 9/11 and the start of the whole Axis of Evil thing. If Rafsanjani wins approval from the mullahs to run again, his resurrection would be on par with Nixon winning the presidency in 1968 after being out of politics for so long.
How likely? He is described as "the leading candidate to become Iran's next president, according to Iranian politicians and analysts."
Here's the real question then: is this the guy whose regime we want to change? Or is this the guy we want to make some SALT-like deal to start a serious détente?
Think about it…
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:51 PM
Why America's definition of "genocide" is the only one that matters
¦"In Sudan, a Sense of Abandonment: Crisis Victims See Little Help From Outside," by Emily Wax, Washington Post, 16 November 2004, p. A1.
I know I've covered this thing many times before. The only reason I cite this article is the following: to highlight the African Union's sad attempt to plus up its "observer force" from 700 to 3,000. The AU asked for $220m in donations to finance the effort, and got only $140m pledged, so nothing has happened. The plus-up is designed to make the force something closer to a peacekeeping force, instead of just note-takers, but Sudan has been adamant about not letting in any such peacekeepers, only "observers."
How many peacekeepers would be needed? Good estimate is 44,000. So is the observing helping in the absence of peacekeeping? According to one experienced Canadian general, "The mission of observing will do nothing except destroy the credibility of African Union troops . . . Observing troops getting beaten up and dying is useless."
There will be no 44k peacekeepers without the U.S. military as the hub around which the spokes can be laid. If the US sees no genocide, then it does not matter who does, because there is no critical mass without the Pentagon. No Pentagon, and it ain't on the map.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:51 PM
"Greater China" eclipsing China as a "great power"
¦"Hong Kong, Taiwan Draw Investment As China Cools Down," by Craig Karmin, Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2004, p. C1.
¦"Drug Companies Look to China For Cheap R&D," by Laura Santini, Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2004, p. B1.
¦"New York Port Hums Again, With Asian Trade," by Eric Lipton, New York Times, 22 November 2004, p. A1.
Investors are cooling on China the mainland, but still pumping money into Hong Kong and Taiwan—or the so-called Greater China markets.
That phrase tells you plenty: Greater China is an economic reality to which the political reality of something beyond China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan has yet to emerge. Economics racing ahead of politics. Connectivity racing ahead of security. The gaps suggest the need for new rule sets.
The question is, How do they come about? By violence or by diplomacy?
Guess which route means more money for everyone?
The definition of Greater China includes sectors like the drug industry, which is deciding to send more and more of its R&D effort from the US to China. But it also includes geographic realities, like a New York port system that is revitalized largely by Greater China's explosive growth over the past five years.
When I was in Beijing, I told reformists there that they needed to do more than come up with a Theory of Peacefully Rising China. They need to come up with a Theory of Greater-Than-Mainland China that was more than just economics and growing connectivity, but included political and security definitions of a better tomorrow for all who joined.
This is Rising China's real task right now, and if completed, the world will enter a new era of even greater stability and growth across a growing Core.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:50 PM
The Netherlands is joined by the Global War on Terrorism
¦"A Brutal Killing Opens Dutch Eyes To Threat of Terror: Crackdown on Radical Islam Follows Filmmaker's Death; Immigrants Get Scrutiny," by Andrew Higgins, Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2004, p. A1.
The assassination of the Dutch filmmaker who spoke out strongly against the treatment of women in traditional Islamic societies has really brought the GWOT to Amsterdam. Here is what one 39-year-old socialist alderman said: "We have to fight terrorism. The war on this small group of terrorists has to be very severe."
The filmmaker, Theo van Gogh, was shot, stabbed and had his throat slashed by a "suspected Islamic radical":
The killing set off a wave of attacks on mosques. It also triggered a surprising shift in a country where, like elsewhere across much of Western Europe, America's "war on terror" has often been derided as too crude and too brutal.
As one politician put it: "People here thought that terrorism was for other countries, not for the Netherlands. This is a rude awakening."
Sounds like a System Perturbation to me.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:50 PM
The New Core is the future of environmental degradation and environmentalism
¦"India Sets Pace on Cleaner Air: Capital Converts Bases, Other Vehicles to Less-Polluting Fuel," by John Larkin, Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2004, p. A12.
The first para says what I've been long stating:
India's dusty and congested capital seems an unlikely place to find ideas about how to cut a country's dependence on expensive foreign oil. In many ways, New Delhi is an environmental disaster zone. But it also is at the forefront of a global push to convert more motor vehicles to cleaner, less expensive natural gas.
In 2002, the city became the first in the world to mandate that all diesel buses switch over to compressed natural gas. India, by the way, imports 70% of its oil.
Who are other states apparently moving in similarly bold ways? Why, that would be China and Brazil, two other New Core powers. China plans to have its fleet ready for the 2008 Olympics held in Beijing. Why? Connectivity doesn't just require code, sometimes it requires clean air—especially if you want anyone to run 26.2 miles in Beijing!
The New Core is the logical center of gravity for future experimentation and new ideas in environmentalism. Why? These states are at a real inflection point in terms of development, meaning they're extremely motivated to find answers.
You want to get the rest of the Gap "green"? Get them into the New Core!
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:48 PM
Japan sounds more ready to deal on North Korea
¦"Japanese Offical Warns of Fissures in North Korea," by James Brooke, New York Times, 22 November 2004, p. A3.
Here’s the shocking opening paragraphs:
After weeks of reports from North Korea of defecting generals, antigovernment posters and the disappearance of portraits of the country's ruler, the leader of Japan's governing party warned Sunday of the prospects of "regime change" in North Korea.
"As long as Chairman Kim Jong Il controls the government, we have to negotiate with him, but it is becoming more doubtful whether we will be able to achieve anything with this government," said Shinzo Abe, acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, on Fuji TV, referring to talks on North Korea's abductions of Japanese in the 1970's. "I think we should consider the possibility that a regime change will occur, and we need to start simulations of what we should do at that time."
By breaking an unspoken taboo on talking publicly about "regime change" in North Korea, the powerful Japanese politician underlined a feeling spreading in the region that cracks are starting to show in the Kim family's control over North Korea after nearly 60 years.
Actually, the only shocking thing about the quote is that the Japanese up and said it!
Anecdotal evidence says more than 100 North Korean generals has fled the country, or roughly 10% of the military elite. What does that tell you about the situation at the top?
It tells me that insiders can be had for a song.
Here’s the kicker: “outside analysts are speculating that the personality cult around "Dear Leader" is being curbed, either to advance painful economic reforms or to head off a military coup fomented by China.”
If that’s the rumor, you have to wonder whether or not Beijing is ready to deal on Kim. If they’re ready, the question becomes, What do we offer?
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:37 PM
The "world election" needs a more globalized slate of candidates
¦"The 28th Amendment," op-ed by William Safire, New York Times, 22 November 2004, p. A31.
William Safire is retiring soon, so what he chooses for his last articles mean something. That he chooses to spend one on the notion that America should let foreign-born citizens run for president means something. It means he understands that the election of our president is the closest thing the world has to a global election.
We need to open up that process by opening up the available pool. We need to say to the world that America is open for business, open for newcomers, open for real expansion.
I thank Mr. Safire for making this choice.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:36 PM
The automatic first economic step in any SysAdmin job
¦"Major Creditors in Accord to Waive 80% of Iraq Debt," by Craig S. Smith, New York Times, 22 November 2004, p. A1.
A good sign and a needed sign. The Core decides collectively to cancel 80% of Iraq's outstanding debt of $39B.
Now the pressure's on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Middle Eastern regimes to do the same.
Nice move, say I.
Also as a mental note, this decision should be automatic in any future A-to-Z Core-wide rule set on processing politically bankrupt regimes in the Gap—no ifs, ands or buts.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 09:36 PM |
