I think QQQ would typically be anticipated to move to the middle of the BBs here after the rebound off the upper rail. Also, the middle of the BBs (i.e., the 20 sma) currently reads $37.89, which is just below recent chart support at just about $38. This suggests to me that QQQ will trade down to this level, regroup there, and very likely successfully test that support.
But today's candle certainly is a bullish hammer.
Technical sell signals in place from last week persist. Though admittedly crumbling now, still there are only early suggestions of new technical buy signals at this point.
On the other hand, the volume for QQQ was rather anemic (about 20% less than average). $COMPX volume (1.9B) was much healthier, approaching the daily average. But $COMPX volume (particularly during the afternoon) was more resistive in nature. It is hard to appreciate this on the intraday QQQ chart, but it is pretty clear on the $COMPX chart.
TICKS are rising and TRINS are dropping, but neither from extreme levels; put/call still showing sell, though without a lot of conviction. Volatilities are not particularly helpful, but seem to be finding a short term bottom. Overall, internals show a mixed bag and exhibit little conviction, but seem more consistent with downside movement at this point.
Oil trading down in the overseas markets at the moment, but is trading sideways at the $48.35 level; the candle on the day was a bearish hammer. The middle of Friday's very bullish candle off support will be next test below. I think it most likely oil will trade down a bit more to this level.
Overseas currency exchanges look a bit brighter at the moment, but all those charts still look pretty grim in the short- to medium-term. Markets don't seem to have concerned themselves much with the dollar, for some reason. But it is hard to see how this could be ignored indefinitely.
I agree it is hard to blow-off today's candle, but I think it important to place it into context by noting the volume on the day.
If one concludes today's candle indicates continued rally for the rest of the week, then one must also blow off suggestions from BBs and volume patterns.... a tough call I think, but my vote goes to downside going into the holiday.
And I agree with you, I am also surprised.
Terry |
