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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?
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To: David M. Selman who wrote (1802)8/29/1997 12:04:00 PM
From: van wang   of 3431
 
David...just checking in right now...i used free cash flow to equity valuation model...10 yr cash flow (w/ quarterly income statements for next 3 yr period...i make assumptions of projected expense categories as a % of revenue...including depreciation, capex, tax rate, etc

i will give details...later....when i come out with a fair value i add /subtract $1.5 to get a range...there is no precise fair value

your discount rate of 12.0% is too light....adjusted beta is 1.72...with 10 yr long rate assumed for my model as 6.5%...and risk premium at 5.5% then discount rate IN THE NEAR TERM is about 16%...this rate declines gradually over the time horizon as growth and stability lowers the adjusted beta 1.72 to 1.1

anyway, i take a look closer tonite...ciao
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