Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Chispas who wrote (16766)	11/24/2004 5:08:07 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (3) of 116555

It is true that plenty of Chinese are exchanging the US$ they have into RMB, but they can do so legally in state banks, so why bother to do it with those "Yellow bulls - Huang Niu"? I dare not to exchange any RMB from individuals (unless very good friends) in Beijing, since there is some possibility that I got some fake bills. Especially in Guandong, there are some fake RMB in circulation, and the gov. crackdown cannot even catch up. I read that a guy said he got 2 fake 20-Yuan bills in one day in ShenZhen. I read some local banks even put a limit of exchanging US$10,000 one person each day. >>The Chinese media and bank officials have sent out a growing number of signals that the yuan could be revalued in the next few months.<< That is not true. No one who are in the decision-making circle have signaled that. The ones who made the signals do not have the power. >> The central bank has talked of possible “flexibility” in the value of the yuan. << The central bank has been talking about it for the last 3-4 years. Have you seen any action?<g> >>Some reports predict a widening of the trading band in the first quarter of next year.<< Those reports are written by the Westerners. There is no crime to speculate<g> I speculate that they are lucky to get 3-5% by the end of next year<g> but then what do I know<g> According to Andy Xie, there are as much as US$1 trillion hot money waiting in HK to bet on RMB appreciation and to attack RMB in case China makes the move. How could a size of economy like China with only a total of GDP US$1.3-1.7 trillion stands for that kind of currency attack?? That is why China cannot make any move now. And this is actually for everyone's interest, not just the Chinese interest.

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