Ralph,
Well if you think the US won't reverse, even though it has the biggest market in the world (and remember demand is half the supply/demand equation) then that is fine, it is only one of the scenarios.
However, if the US does not pick up do you see the ROW replacing US consumption? I don't. For all America's faults, and while they consume more than other nations, at the corporate level some sectors can be pretty darn competitive (compared to Japan, for example).
I suppose I was trying to be positive, but if you insist:
OK, we get major US decline, followed by WW decline on back of credit bubble and currency deflation. High commodity prices cycle through to high inflation. Consumers clamp shut. (By the way, I've seen it before in Japan, I was there 1988-98) and businesses start winding up. But, Japan had domestic savings, so they survive.
If that is the case, we could enter the 50-60 yr long Kondratieff long wave described here:
gold-eagle.com
50-60 yrs of recession...why do you even bother investing in any stocks, because they will likely go nowhere as paper assest are seen with distrust. Invest here instead:
Deluxe Family Unit
"Our Best"
1 Year Supply for 2
or
6 Month Supply for 4
survivalcenter.com
It may well be worse than we think. Maybe we'll get a flu epidemic at the same time as a natural disaster like an ice age or comet hitting the earth, in which case I'm not sure if bonds or equities are better. <vbg>
I do think that the US could have a severe correction for a few years, but Americans are pretty entrepreneurial, and the obese will get thin quickly, consuming less diabetes healthcare.
I do not think the US will go through the painful 'water torture' Japan is still going through.
If a global recession I also do not see any other nation, except maybe China and India, having the domestic demand and willpower to pull through int he short-term, and even that is questionable.
As they say in Canada, when the US gets a cold Canada gets the flu. What happens when the US gets the flu?
D |
