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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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From: Chispas11/26/2004 4:30:18 PM
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Martin Weiss on the gold ETF (martinweiss.com, 11-24-04)

Q: I'm a large shareholder of Newmont Mining. I read that with the advent of the new ETFs which just started trading, the outlook for NEM appears to be somewhat bearish. What do you think?

A: The new gold ETF has been a huge success. In just three days, GLD has $1.3 billion in assets and has already moved some 2.9 million ounces of gold into storage and OFF the market.

The short-term answer is that the new gold ETF could steal away money from all gold mining shares — Newmont Mining included. However, we expect the long-term effect of the gold ETF to put significant upward pressure on gold prices. And higher gold prices are certainly good news for Newmont Mining. That is why Newmont Mining has barely budged since the gold ETF went public.

Lastly, you need to remember that the tax rate of the gold ETF is 28% since all gains on it are treated as a collectible. The maximum tax rate of long-term captial gains on all gold mining shares is 15% — quite a difference.

Keep your Newmont Mining — we think it is headed much, much higher.
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