Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 237.71

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9:30 AM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (12200)	11/26/2004 9:26:55 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (6) of 25522

I used to design ICs. I noticed that the number of intercommect layers was growing as chips got more complex. Yes, yes that NVLS's growth concept is built on - while number of chips might grow at a certain pace this pace is being turbo charged by increasing complexity = number of interconnect layers (to be deposited) and consequently numbers of layers to be dry etched. (I believe Varian Implant situation is somewhat similar because the number of implants is increasing as well as complexity continues to increase). If you "normalize" NVLS stock price by comparing to AMAT you notice NVLS lags as well (I recall they moved 2:1; based on AMAT's $17 NVLS should be around $34 - of coursw that's a rough cut) LRCX is catching up in regards to margin (operatins) while maintaining leadership in technology. Novellus has been adding PVD, strip&clean as well as electroplating to its original CVD. In case NVLS would have been equally successful in its (core) CVD like LRCX is in etch the NVLS topline should be at least 1.5x compared to LRCX considering they added Varian PVD as well as Gasonics and electroplating (don't even consider SFAM). Cary has a number of points I agree with but equally a number of points I do not agree at all - but that's markets are about - different opinions

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