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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility
AAPL 283.32+1.6%Dec 1 3:59 PM EST
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To: CusterInvestor who wrote (124193)11/27/2004 5:16:46 AM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (2) of 208838
 
I think WHO is being conservative and doesn't want to alarm the public. They actually did the same thing with SARS, which had a true case fatality rate in the mid teens. WHO and CDC initially used China's early numbers, which were assumed to be major underestimates of deaths.

Then the CDC/WHO divided the number dead by the number diagnosed, when most diagnosed had not been in the hospital long enough to die. Thus CDC and WHO generated an initial number that was artificially low. As patients died, the case fatality rate appeared to be rising, when in fact it was always in the mid teens.

For pandemic flu there are many variables and part of the problem is the fact that WHO and CDC really don't understand how the virus evolves

recombinomics.com

Consequently, they think the virus has to trade a high fatality rate for a high human to human transmission rate, which is not true (the virus uses recombination, not reassortment and at this point is smarted than WHO and the CDC).

On the precaution side, I am just keeping close tabs on developments in Asia (and I did get my whole family vaccinated with human flu before the extent of the shortage clarified - I knew Chiron was a major question, but actually assumed the US would come up with more replacement vaccine than they actually did).
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