Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (16934)	11/27/2004 1:25:08 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Not sure how you go from my reference to "resource crisis" to "labor shortage", or what the confusion is, but I see my point as quite clear. China has far outstripped it's input and support capacity. I would describe it as "turning out the lights". gasandoil.com Check out your longer term prospects too. 340 GWE of installed electric generation base, except consumption in 2004 was up 16% (much covered by using distillates for power generation, as coal is maxing out). The big hydro projects are expected to come on line at end of decade (if they can find the steel and copper) and will add only 34 GWE, nuclear by 2020 will bring on 36 GWE. So that's about 2% output growth a year. The only way China can support even 4% GDP growth from this level are big petroleum imports, and from where? world-nuclear.org

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