DAK,
I have said before:
CAD is a good call on commodities, not on great gov't and that CDN economy will continue to hurt going forward due to currency impact.
The short USD/long every other currency has been pretty profitable, NKR outperformed CAD etc etc
My point is that some gold TA sets up people for a fall. Saying "gold has massive resistance at $424" when Dollar Index is at 90, and then not changing that call when DXY0 goes to 85 or lower sets people up for disappointment.
Most of the calls I've read that state things like "above $430 no resistance to $500" and "once we break through $430-$434 the cabal can't hold it" are almost never tied to corresponding DXY0 numbers.
So, one day the DXY0 goes to 50, for example, and POG is $800, then what we have is a currency adjustment, not a breakout. The analysis could be more thorough, I thought.
I don't see how TA is done on gold without factoring in DXY0, but I've rarely seen it, and ^HUI and ^XAU vary significantly in their leverage to POG (from 2x to over 5x).
I'm surprised, with all these smart people that the analysis doesn't neutralize exchange rate changes. If they did that, we'd have a better idea of when we have a global breakout, in the meantime invest in the Euro, CHF, NKR etc. I'm long gold, but for the avg investor, the way to analyze this beast is a challenge, is it not?
What's your take?
D |
